Lahore School’s 19th Annual Conference on the Pakistan Economy Featured in The Express Tribune

The Lahore School of Economics’ 19th Annual Conference on Management of the Pakistan Economy has highlighted grave warnings from economists regarding the nation's deteriorating growth outlook. Experts revealed that Pakistan’s GDP growth for fiscal year 2025-26 is projected to fall to 1.8%, a sharp decline from the pre-conflict estimate of 3.2%. This downward revision is primarily driven by an "oil shock," with global prices reaching $120 per barrel, coupled with a prolonged decline in investment and rising inflation, which is now projected to hit 9.4%.

As reported by The Express Tribune, the conference emphasized that Pakistan’s heavy reliance on imported energy, covering nearly 80% of its needs, has amplified these economic shocks. Researchers noted that the country's sustainable growth rate has slipped to 3.7%, while trend GDP growth has dropped from 4% in previous decades to just 2.5%. This stagnation is further complicated by annual capital outflows of $6-9 billion and a reversal in poverty reduction trends. While the exchange rate has shown recent stability, the report cautions that underlying external imbalances and high borrowing costs continue to squeeze the private sector and industrial growth.

The coverage highlights a call for a fundamental pivot in economic strategy, moving away from short-term fixes toward proactive industrial policy and structural reforms. Recommendations include leveraging solar technology, which could offer electricity savings of 40-60%, and shifting focus toward export-led growth to improve competitiveness. The research concludes that without urgent, coordinated reforms to boost productivity and stabilize the political environment, Pakistan will remain vulnerable to recurring balance of payments crises and rising social inequality.